Initial evidence of delay discounting's predictive utility for alcohol self-administration in ecologically valid...

While delay discounting is robustly associated with alcohol use disorder, whether discounting predicts real-time alcohol use behaviors is unclear. Existing support comes from laboratory studies using intravenous alcohol self-administration methods, thus limiting ecological validity and generalizability. The present study evaluated whether delay discounting predicted real-time alcohol use in naturalistic settings with and without probabilistic negative consequences for consuming larger amounts of alcohol.

This secondary analysis utilized data from three laboratory alcohol self-administration studies with young adults who engaged in frequent heavy drinking (N=206, 45% female). Participants completed a delay discounting measure before an alcohol self-administration session in an actual or simulated bar with (n=187) or without (n=19) probabilistic negative consequences (compensation loss) tied to performance on cognitive and psychomotor tasks after alcohol self-administration. Bootstrapped (unstandardized) coefficient estimates and 95% confidence intervals were utilized due to the sample size discrepancy.

Multiple regressions revealed that delay discounting did not significantly predict estimated blood alcohol concentration (eBAC) or number of drinks consumed when procedures included probabilistic negative consequences. Among participants who completed procedures without probabilistic negative consequences, delay discounting was positively associated with peak eBAC.

Counter to hypotheses, steeper delay discounting did not predict real-time alcohol use in contexts with probabilistic negative consequences, whereas preliminary evidence suggests that delay discounting predicts real-time alcohol use behaviors in contexts without probabilistic negative consequences. The specific discounting task may have impacted study findings, thus future research should consider how the sign (gain vs. loss), outcome certainty, and delay relate to alcohol consumption.