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Exploring the utility of a latent variable as comprehensive inflammatory prognostic index in critically ill patients
Chang Shu1, Chenguang Zheng2, Guobin Zhang3
1Tianjin Key Laboratory of Cerebral Vascular and Neurodegenerative Diseases, Tianjin Neurosurgical Institute, Tianjin Huanhu Hospital, Tianjin, China.
Objective:
We introduce the comprehensive inflammatory prognostic index (CIPI), a novel prognostic tool for critically ill cerebral infarction patients, designed to meet the urgent need for timely and convenient clinical decision-making in this high-risk patient group.
Methods:
Using exploratory factor analysis on selected indices-neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), and systemic immune inflammation index (SIII)-we derived CIPI, a latent variable capturing their combined predictive power. Data from 1,022 patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database were used to develop CIPI-based survival models, with the robustness and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) performance of CIPI validated against an independent dataset of 326 patients from the MIMIC-III CareVue subset. The CIPI's predictive power for in-hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) mortality was assessed through Kaplan-Meier analysis, univariate and multivariate Cox regression models, and time-dependent AUC analysis. Linearity, subgroup sensitivity analyses and interaction effects with CIPI were also evaluated.
Results:
CIPI was an independent prognostic factor, demonstrating a statistically significant association with in-hospital and ICU mortality, when assessed as a continuous and a categorical variable. It showed a linear relationship with mortality rates and demonstrated stability across most subgroups, with no significant interactions observed. Its predictive capabilities for in-hospital and ICU mortality among critically ill cerebral infarction patients matched those of established prognostic indices in the MIMIC database.
Conclusion:
Our study indicates that CIPI is a reliable and effective prognostic tool for critically ill cerebral infarction patients in predicting in-hospital and ICU mortality. Its straightforward calculation, rooted in routine blood tests, enhances its practicality, promising significant utility in clinical settings.
