[Performance of severity indexes for the prediction of adverse events among patients hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2]

Severity assessment in adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) allows to guide the site of care (ambulatory or hospitalization), diagnostic workup and treatment.

To examine the performance of twelve severity predictive indexes (CRB65, CURB65, PSI, SCAP, SMART-COP, REA-ICU, ATS minor criteria, qSOFA, CALL, COVID GRAM, 4C, STSS) in adult patients hospitalized for CAP associated with SARS-CoV-2.

Prospective clinical study conducted between April 1 and September 30, 2020 in adult patients hospitalized for CAP associated with COVID-19 in a clinical hospital. The recorded adverse events were admission to the critical care unit, use of mechanical ventilation (MV), prolonged length of stay, and hospital mortality. The predictive rules were compared based on their sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve.

Adverse events were more common and hospital stay longer in the high-risk categories of the different prognostic indices. CURB-65, PSI, SCAP, COVID GRAM, 4 C and STSS predicted the risk of death accurately. PSI, SCAP, ATS minor criteria, CALL and 4 C criteria were sensitive in predicting the risk of hospital mortality with high negative predictive value. The performance of different prognostic indices decreased significantly for the prediction of ICU admission, use of mechanical ventilation, and prolonged hospital length of stay.

The performance of the prognostic indices differs significantly for the prediction of adverse events in immunocompetent adult patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia associated with COVID-19.