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Assessing wildfire impact on Trigonella elliptica habitat using random forest modeling
Ehsan Moradi1, Ali Tavili2, Hamid Darabi3
1Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran; Institute of Landscape Engineering, Faculty of Horticulture and Landscape Engineering, Slovak University of Agriculture, Nitra, Slovakia.
Journal of Environmental Management
|January 31, 2024
Summary
Wildfires pose a serious threat to Trigonella elliptica habitats in Iran. Effective fire management is crucial to conserve this valuable herb and prevent ecosystem degradation.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Conservation Biology
Background:
- Wildfires significantly degrade arid and semi-arid rangelands globally.
- Trigonella elliptica is a valuable herb species with a habitat in Iran's central rangelands.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the impact of wildfires on Trigonella elliptica habitat.
- To predict T. elliptica habitat and fire hazard using socio-environmental variables in Yazd province, Iran.
Main Methods:
- Employed the Random Forest (RF) algorithm for habitat and fire hazard prediction.
- Utilized IncNodePurity index and Probability Curves (PC) to determine variable influence.
- Validated model performance using Area Under the Curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistic (TSS).
Main Results:
- RF model demonstrated high performance (AUC: 0.90 for habitat, 0.92 for wildfire; TSS: 0.81 for habitat, 0.82 for wildfire).
- Elevation, slope, and precipitation influence T. elliptica distribution; distance to roads, population density, and wind speed affect wildfire occurrence.
- A significant portion of T. elliptica habitat (approx. 2311.38 km²) faces high fire hazard, indicating a serious conservation concern.
Conclusions:
- Urgent implementation of fire management strategies and protection projects is necessary.
- Continuous monitoring is essential for the conservation of T. elliptica habitat.
- Neglecting high-risk areas could lead to reduced T. elliptica populations and undesirable secondary succession.
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