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Rebecca A Baum1, Brad D Berman2, Jill J Fussell3

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The US faces a significant shortage of developmental-behavioral pediatrics (DBP) specialists, with current and projected numbers inadequate to meet children

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Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce Analysis
  • Child Neurodevelopmental and Behavioral Health

Background:

  • Developmental-behavioral pediatrics (DBP) subspecialists manage complex pediatric neurodevelopmental and behavioral health conditions.
  • The current DBP workforce is insufficient to meet patient and family needs, with significant geographic disparities.
  • DBP subspecialists also contribute to education, training, advocacy, and research.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To forecast the US pediatric subspecialty workforce, specifically DBP, from 2020 to 2040.
  • To assess the adequacy of the DBP workforce in relation to projected population growth and disease prevalence.
  • To inform strategies for addressing the DBP workforce shortage.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a workforce modeling project led by The American Board of Pediatrics Foundation.
  • Projected DBP subspecialist supply (headcount and clinical workforce equivalent) under baseline and alternative scenarios.
  • Incorporated current trends in subspecialty training and clinical time allocation.

Main Results:

  • Baseline models predict national headcount growth for DBP subspecialists (+45%, 669 to 958).
  • However, adjusted for population growth, DBP specialists per 100,000 children are projected to increase only slightly (0.8 to 1.0 HC, 0.5 to 0.6 clinical workforce equivalent by 2040).
  • Even optimistic scenarios show minimal impact on overall numbers, indicating a persistent workforce deficit.

Conclusions:

  • The projected growth in DBP subspecialists is insufficient to meet the demand for pediatric neurodevelopmental and behavioral health services.
  • Urgent development of solutions in education, training, practice, policy, and research is necessary to expand the DBP workforce.
  • Addressing the DBP workforce shortage is critical for improving overall child health outcomes.