Child Health Needs and the Developmental-Behavioral Pediatrics Workforce Supply: 2020-2040

Area of Science:

• Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce Analysis
• Child Neurodevelopmental and Behavioral Health

Background:

• Developmental-behavioral pediatrics (DBP) subspecialists manage complex pediatric neurodevelopmental and behavioral health conditions.
• The current DBP workforce is insufficient to meet patient and family needs, with significant geographic disparities.
• DBP subspecialists also contribute to education, training, advocacy, and research.

Purpose of the Study:

• To forecast the US pediatric subspecialty workforce, specifically DBP, from 2020 to 2040.
• To assess the adequacy of the DBP workforce in relation to projected population growth and disease prevalence.
• To inform strategies for addressing the DBP workforce shortage.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a workforce modeling project led by The American Board of Pediatrics Foundation.
• Projected DBP subspecialist supply (headcount and clinical workforce equivalent) under baseline and alternative scenarios.
• Incorporated current trends in subspecialty training and clinical time allocation.

Main Results:

• Baseline models predict national headcount growth for DBP subspecialists (+45%, 669 to 958).
• However, adjusted for population growth, DBP specialists per 100,000 children are projected to increase only slightly (0.8 to 1.0 HC, 0.5 to 0.6 clinical workforce equivalent by 2040).
• Even optimistic scenarios show minimal impact on overall numbers, indicating a persistent workforce deficit.

Conclusions:

• The projected growth in DBP subspecialists is insufficient to meet the demand for pediatric neurodevelopmental and behavioral health services.
• Urgent development of solutions in education, training, practice, policy, and research is necessary to expand the DBP workforce.
• Addressing the DBP workforce shortage is critical for improving overall child health outcomes.