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Published on: November 11, 2020
Child Health and the Pediatric Pulmonology Workforce: 2020-2040
Terry L Noah1, Debra Boyer2, Stephanie D Davis1
1Department of Pediatrics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Insights
The pediatric pulmonology workforce is growing, with a projected 20-40% increase in subspecialists per child by 2040. While supply may meet demand, geographic disparities and diversity challenges persist.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce Analysis
- Healthcare Workforce Planning
- Pulmonology Research
Background:
- Concerns exist regarding the adequacy of the pediatric pulmonology (PULM) subspecialist supply to meet future demand.
- This study is part of a larger initiative by the American Board of Pediatrics (ABP) Foundation to investigate the future pediatric subspecialty workforce.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the current pediatric pulmonology clinical workforce in the United States.
- To estimate the future clinical workforce supply in pediatric pulmonology through 2040.
- To identify trends in workforce demographics and geographic distribution.
Main Methods:
- Utilized American Board of Pediatrics (ABP) certification and Maintenance of Certification data to assess the current workforce.
- Developed a workforce supply model incorporating population growth, clinical effort, and geographic trends.
- Incorporated ABP data into the workforce supply model for future projections.
Main Results:
- The number of pediatric pulmonologists has steadily increased over the past decade.
- The ratio of pediatric pulmonologists to children is projected to rise by 20-40% in the next two decades, though absolute numbers remain low.
- Geographic variations in access are expected to persist, and diversity metrics (women, underrepresented minorities) show mixed progress.
Conclusions:
- The current pediatric pulmonology workforce trends suggest the capacity to meet projected population growth and increased demand for clinical services.
- Geographic maldistribution and persistent challenges in demographic diversity may continue to affect access to care.
- Recommendations include addressing access variations, promoting diversity, and considering implications for training, practice, and policy.
Abstract:
There is concern as to whether the supply of pediatric pulmonology (PULM) subspecialists will be adequate to meet future demand. As part of an American Board of Pediatrics (ABP) Foundation-sponsored supplement investigating the future of the pediatric subspecialty workforce, this article assesses the current PULM clinical workforce and estimates the clinical workforce supply in the United States through 2040. The current workforce was assessed using ABP certification and Maintenance of Certification data, and a workforce supply model evaluating population growth, clinical effort, and geographic trends was developed after incorporating ABP data. Findings demonstrate that the number of pediatric pulmonologists has gradually increased over the past decade, and the ratio of subspecialists to children is likely to increase another 20% to 40% over the next 2 decades, although absolute numbers remain small. Geographic variation in access will persist in some regions. The proportion of women in the discipline has increased, but the proportion of pediatric pulmonologists from underrepresented in medicine backgrounds still lags behind the general population. Based on current trends, the PULM clinical workforce appears equipped to meet both population growth and the modest increase in demand for clinical services speculated to occur because of changes in the subspecialty's clinical portfolio. However, several factors could inhibit growth, and geographic maldistribution may continue to impact care access. Efforts to address variation in access and demographic diversity in the field are warranted. This article concludes by discussing the training, clinical practice, policy, and future workforce research implications of the data presented.
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