Child Health and the Pediatric Pulmonology Workforce: 2020-2040.

Area of Science:

• Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce Analysis
• Healthcare Workforce Planning
• Pulmonology Research

Background:

• Concerns exist regarding the adequacy of the pediatric pulmonology (PULM) subspecialist supply to meet future demand.
• This study is part of a larger initiative by the American Board of Pediatrics (ABP) Foundation to investigate the future pediatric subspecialty workforce.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the current pediatric pulmonology clinical workforce in the United States.
• To estimate the future clinical workforce supply in pediatric pulmonology through 2040.
• To identify trends in workforce demographics and geographic distribution.

Main Methods:

• Utilized American Board of Pediatrics (ABP) certification and Maintenance of Certification data to assess the current workforce.
• Developed a workforce supply model incorporating population growth, clinical effort, and geographic trends.
• Incorporated ABP data into the workforce supply model for future projections.

Main Results:

• The number of pediatric pulmonologists has steadily increased over the past decade.
• The ratio of pediatric pulmonologists to children is projected to rise by 20-40% in the next two decades, though absolute numbers remain low.
• Geographic variations in access are expected to persist, and diversity metrics (women, underrepresented minorities) show mixed progress.

Conclusions:

• The current pediatric pulmonology workforce trends suggest the capacity to meet projected population growth and increased demand for clinical services.
• Geographic maldistribution and persistent challenges in demographic diversity may continue to affect access to care.
• Recommendations include addressing access variations, promoting diversity, and considering implications for training, practice, and policy.