Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Cardiology Workforce: 2020-2040

This article evaluates the pediatric cardiology (PC) workforce and forecasts its future supply. Produced as part of a supplement in Pediatrics, this effort represents a collaboration among the American Board of Pediatrics Foundation, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill's Carolina Health Workforce Research Center, the Strategic Modeling and Analysis Ltd., and members of the pediatric subspecialty community. PC is a complex subspecialty including care from fetal life through adulthood and in practice settings that range from the outpatient clinic to procedural settings to the cardiac ICU. Complex subdisciplines include imaging, electrophysiology, heart failure, and interventional and critical care. Using American Board of Pediatrics data, US Census Bureau data, and data from the modeling project, projections were created to model the subspecialty workforce through 2040. Across all modeling scenarios considered, there is considerable projected growth in the supply of pediatric cardiologists by 2040. However, there is significant regional variation in the projected supply of trainees relative to demand in terms of local population growth, with evidence of a likely mismatch between areas surrounding training centers versus areas of greatest workforce need. In addition, this article highlights areas for future focus, including efforts to attract more residents to the subspecialty in general, particularly underrepresented minority members; increased support, more part-time career options, and improved academic career advancement for women in PC; and the development of better "real-time" workforce data to guide trainees and training programs in decisions regarding sub-subspecialty job availability.