Influence of human motion patterns on epidemic spreading dynamics

Area of Science:

• Network science
• Epidemiology
• Computational modeling

Background:

• Human motion patterns are increasingly recognized for their influence on epidemic dynamics.
• A systematic study integrating human motion patterns into epidemic spreading models within network science is lacking.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the influence of human motion patterns, specifically moving speed and gathering preference, on epidemic spreading dynamics.
• To simulate disease transmission in a gathered population using an agent-based model.

Main Methods:

• Developed an agent-based model simulating the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process.
• Incorporated human motion patterns, including moving speed and gathering preference, into the simulation.

Main Results:

• Observed a hysteresis loop in epidemic prevalence when moving speed was slow, especially with high gathering preference, indicating dependence on initial seed fraction.
• The hysteresis loop disappeared when the population moved fast, irrespective of gathering preference.
• Identified an optimal moving speed for gathered populations that maximizes epidemic prevalence.

Conclusions:

• Human motion patterns, particularly speed and gathering behavior, critically modulate epidemic spreading dynamics.
• The presence of hysteresis loops in epidemic spread is contingent on slow movement and social gathering tendencies.
• Understanding these motion-driven dynamics is crucial for predicting and controlling disease transmission in populations.