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Quo vadis, smallholder forest landscape? An introduction to the LPB-RAP model
Sonja Holler1,2, Daniel Kübler1, Olaf Conrad2
1Thünen Institute of Forestry, Hamburg, Germany.
Plos One
|February 2, 2024
Summary
This study introduces the LPB-RAP model, a tool for simulating forest landscape restoration (FLR) potentials in smallholder-dominated regions. It aids in planning by analyzing future land use changes under various climate and socioeconomic scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Ecology
- Forestry
Background:
- Anthropocene impacts on climate and biodiversity necessitate ecosystem restoration.
- Effective restoration requires local to regional actions considering current and future landscape conditions.
- Modeling approaches can support management and policy-making for ecosystem restoration.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present the LaForeT-PLUC-BE model (LPB) and its Restoration Areas Potentials (RAP) module, named LPB-RAP.
- To introduce LPB-RAP as a high-resolution, pixel-based scenario tool for simulating future landscape configurations.
- To analyze the potential of Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR) measures within smallholder-dominated forest landscapes.
Main Methods:
- Developed LPB-RAP, a heuristic Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS).
- Incorporated dynamic, probabilistic modeling of Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) with climatic, anthropogenic, and restriction parameters.
- Utilized user-defined scenario inputs (SSP, RCP) and exemplified application for SSP2-RCP4.5 in Ecuador (2018-2100).
Main Results:
- Simulated future landscape configurations under contrasting scenarios, with and without FLR measures.
- Depicted FLR potentials using up to five Restoration Areas Potentials (RAP) land use types (LUTs).
- Provided hectare-scale, annual resolution results for the Esmeraldas province case study.
Conclusions:
- LPB-RAP is a novel SDSS tool for smallholder-dominated forest landscapes.
- The model supports near-time top-down planning with long-term bottom-up modeling.
- Further on-site investigations and stakeholder participation are recommended for FLR implementation.
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