Clinical T2 N0 M0 Esophageal Cancer: Identifying Predictive Factors of Upstaging

Inaccuracy of clinical staging renders management of clinical T2 N0 M0 (cT2 N0 M0) esophageal cancer difficult. When an underlying advanced-stage disease is understaged to cT2 N0 M0, patients miss the opportunity to gain the potential benefits of neoadjuvant therapy. This study aimed to identify preoperative factors that predict underlying advanced-stage esophageal cancer.

From 2000 to 2020, 1579 patients with esophageal cancer underwent esophagectomy. Sixty patients who underwent upfront surgery for cT2 N0 M0 esophageal cancer were included in this study. The median age was 62.5 years, and 78% (n = 47) of these patients were male. Radiologic, clinical, and endoscopic factors were evaluated as preoperative markers. The Fisher exact and the Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used for categoric and continuous variables, respectively. Random forest classification was used to identify preoperative factors for predicting upstaging and downstaging.

Of the 60 patients, 8 (13%) were found to have pathologic T2 N0 M0 esophageal cancer. Sixteen (27%) patients had cancer that was pathologically downstaged, and 36 (60%) had upstaged disease. Seven (19%) patients had upstaged cancer on the basis of the pathologic T stage, 14 (39%) had upstaging on the basis of the pathologic N stage, and 15 (42%) had upstaging on the basis of both T and N stages. Dysphagia (P = .003) and tumor maximum standardized uptake value (P = .048) were predictors of upstaging, with a combined predictive value of up to 75%.

The presence of dysphagia and of high maximum standardized uptake value (≥5) of the tumor is predictive of more advanced underlying disease for patients with cT2 N0 M0 esophageal cancer, and these patients should be considered for neoadjuvant therapy.