Quality, quantity, and age: the careers of ten distinguished psychologists

The longitudinal relationship between quality and quantity of productive output is examined over the careers of ten recipients of the Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award. Four alternative models of this relationship-expertise-acquisition, youthful-enthusiasm, peak-age, and constant-probability-of-success-yield distinctive predictions regarding 1) how the ratio of major contributions to total output changes as a career advances and 2) the developmental association between major and minor works over consecutive time periods. The quality of a publication was assessed by the citations it earned in the professional literature. The results endorsed the constant-probability-of-success model (both across and within careers). Not only does confirmation of this model provide support for Campbell's blind-variation-and-selective-retention theory of creative thought, but it additionally has important implications for understanding the role of age and chance in the careers of successful psychologists.