The influence of sex-division, experience, and pacing strategy on performance in the 2020 CrossFit® Open

To observe workout pacing strategies and determine which best predicted performance, this retrospective study analyzed recorded efforts from a random selection of 160 high-ranking (top 10,000) men and women (n = 80 each) in the 2020 CrossFit® Open (CFO). Video recordings submitted to the official competition leaderboard for all five tests were analyzed to quantify overall test completion rates (and tie-break time for test 5 only) and within-test repetition completion rate (repetitions × sec^-1) for each exercise, as well as the quantity of failed repetitions, break strategy (count and duration), and transition times. Each variable was aggregated into first-half, last-half, and total-test averages, slopes, and coefficient of variation; except on test 5 (total-test only). Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were calculated between test completion rates, each test's respective pacing variables, competitor demographics (height and body mass) and CFO experience (i.e., past participation, consecutive competitions, and ranks). Stepwise regression using significantly (p < 0.05) correlated variables produced two prediction models for test performance (best predictor only and best overall model within 8 variables) in a validation group (50% of valid efforts) and then cross-validated against remaining athletes. When no between-group differences were seen, data were combined and used to create the final prediction models for test 1 (r²adj = 0.64-0.96, SEE = 0.4-1.2 repetitions × sec^-1), test 2 (r²adj = 0.28-0.85, SEE = 2.0-4.5 repetitions × sec^-1), test 3 (r²adj = 0.49-0.81, SEE = 1.1-1.7 repetitions × sec^-1), test 4 (r²adj = 0.63-0.78, SEE = 0.6-0.9 repetitions × sec^-1), and test 5 (rate: r²adj = 0.71-0.84, SEE = 1.2-1.6 repetitions × sec^-1; tie-break time: r²adj = 0.06-0.62, SEE = 1.4-2.3 min). Across the five 2020 CFO tests, the data suggested that repetition pace, breaking strategy, and/or consistency in completing calisthenic-gymnastics components (when prescribed) was most predictive of performance. However, their influence was affected by the complexity of prescribed resistance training exercises and their relative loads. Athletes should prioritize calisthenic-gymnastics components but divert attention to more complex resistance training exercises when prescribed at higher relative intensity loads. Neither previous competition experience nor sex-division altered the hierarchal importance of these considerations.