An analysis of the São Silvestre race between 2007-2021: An increase in participation but a decrease in performance.

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Running Performance Analysis
• Event Participation Trends

Background:

• The São Silvestre race is a major annual running event in Brazil.
• Understanding participation and performance trends is crucial for event organizers and sports development.
• Previous research has explored various aspects of road racing, but long-term trends in major Brazilian events require further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze trends in finishers of the São Silvestre race from 2007 to 2021.
• To examine how sex, age, and performance levels have evolved over time.
• To identify disparities and potential areas for improvement in runner participation and performance.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of 31,775 finishers' data (sex, age, race times) from the São Silvestre race (2007-2021).
• Statistical methods included the Mann-Whitney U test, Spearman correlation, and robust regression.
• Data were sourced from the official race website.

Main Results:

• Runner participation increased across both sexes over the study period.
• The "31-40 years" age group had the most female finishers, while men over 60 had the most male finishers.
• A general decrease in performance was observed over the years (β = 2.45, p < 0.005).
• Men consistently showed better performance than women (U = 42.844, p < 0.001).
• The performance gap between sexes widened over time (β = 1.76, p < 0.001).

Conclusions:

• While overall participation in the São Silvestre race has grown, average performance has declined.
• Significant differences in race times persist between men and women, with an increasing performance gap.
• Event organizers should implement targeted strategies to enhance the participation of women and younger age groups.