An inflammation-based model for identifying severe acute pancreatitis: a single-center retrospective study

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is potentially lethal. Considering the role of inflammation in the progression of acute pancreatitis (AP), this study aims to develop a model based on inflammatory indexes for identifying the presence of SAP.

Overall, 253 patients with AP who were consecutively admitted between July 2018 and November 2020 were screened, of whom 60 had SAP. Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), platelet-to-albumin ratio (PAR), C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR), C-reactive protein-to-lymphocyte ratio (CLR), and triglyceride glucose (TyG) index were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors of SAP. Then, inflammation-based models were established. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analyses were performed. Area under ROC curve (AUROC) was calculated.

Diabetes mellitus, fatty liver, high white blood cell count (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), red blood cell distribution width (RDW), procalcitonin (PCT), SII, NLR, NPR, CAR, CLR, and TyG index, and a low LMR were significantly associated with SAP. Considering the collinearity among these variables, 10 multivariate logistic regression analyses were separately performed. Finally, four independent inflammation-based models were established. Of them, the best one, which was calculated as follows: 1.204*fatty liver (yes = 1; no = 0) + 0.419*PCT + 0.005*CLR - 2.629, had an AUROC of 0.795 with a specificity of 73.4% and a sensitivity of 71.7%.

The inflammation-based model consisting of fatty liver, PCT, and CLR has a good diagnostic performance for SAP.