Development of decision rules for an adaptive aftercare intervention based on individual symptom courses for...

As other mental illnesses, agoraphobia is associated with a significant risk for relapse after the end of treatment. Personalized and adaptive approaches appear promising to improve maintenance treatment and aftercare as they acknowledge patients' varying individual needs with respect to intensity of care over time. Currently, there is a deficit of knowledge about the detailed symptom course after discharge from acute treatment, which is a prerequisite for the empirical development of rules to decide if and when aftercare should be intensified. Therefore, this study aimed firstly at the investigation of the naturalistic symptom course of agoraphobia after discharge from initial treatment and secondly at the development and evaluation of a data-driven algorithm for a digital adaptive aftercare intervention. A total of 56 agoraphobia patients were recruited in 3 hospitals. Following discharge, participants completed a weekly online monitoring assessment for three months. While symptom severity remained stable at the group level, individual courses were highly heterogeneous. Approximately two-thirds of the patients (70%) reported considerable symptoms at some time, indicating a need for medium or high-intense therapeutic support. Simulating the application of the algorithm to the data set resulted in an early (86% before week six) and relatively even allocation of patients to three groups (need for no, medium, and high-intense support respectively). Overall, findings confirm the need for adaptive aftercare strategies in agoraphobia. Digital, adaptive approaches may provide immediate support to patients who experience symptom deterioration and thus promise to contribute to an optimized allocation of therapeutic resources and overall improvement of care.