Establishment of a risk prediction model for bowel necrosis in patients with incarcerated inguinal hernia

Incarceration occurred in approximately 5% to 15% of inguinal hernia patients, with around 15% of incarcerated cases progressing to intestinal necrosis, necessitating bowel resection surgery. Patients with intestinal necrosis had significantly higher mortality and complication rates compared to those without necrosis.The primary objective of this study was to design and validate a diagnostic model capable of predicting intestinal necrosis in patients with incarcerated groin hernias.

We screened the clinical records of patients who underwent emergency surgery for incarcerated inguinal hernia between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2022. To ensure balanced representation, the enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 180) and a validation set (n = 76) using a 2:1 ratio. Logistic regression analysis was conducted using the rms package in R software, incorporating selected features from the LASSO regression model, to construct a predictive model.

Based on the results of the LASSO regression analysis, a multivariate logistic regression model was developed to establish the predictive model. The predictors included in the model were Abdominal effusion, Hernia Sac Effusion, and Procalcitonin. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the nomogram graph in the training set was 0.977 (95% CI = 0.957-0.992). In the validation set, the AUC for the nomogram graph was 0.970. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) verified the accuracy and practicability of the nomogram graph in our study.

Bowel necrosis in patients with incarcerated inguinal hernia was influenced by multiple factors. The nomogram predictive model constructed in this study could be utilized to predict and differentiate whether incarcerated inguinal hernia patients were at risk of developing bowel necrosis.