Risk Factors for Distant Metastasis in T3 T4 Rectal Cancer

Distant metastasis is the leading cause of death in patients with rectal cancer. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the risk factors of distant metastasis in T3 T4 rectal cancer using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), pathological features, and serum indicators.

The clinicopathological data of 146 cases of T3 T4 rectal cancer after radical resection from January 2015 to March 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. Pre- and postoperative follow-up data of all cases were collected to screen for distant metastatic lesions. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression methods were used to analyze the relationship between MRI features, pathological results, serum test indexes, and distant metastasis.

Of the 146 included patients, synchronous or metachronous distance metastasis was confirmed in 43 (29.4%) cases. The patients' baseline data and univariate analysis showed that mrEMVI, maximum tumor diameter, mr T Stage, pathological N stage, number of lymph node metastasis, cancer nodules, preoperative serum CEA, (Carcinoembryonic antigen) and CA199 were associated with distant metastasis. In the multiple logistic regression model, mrEMVI, pathological N stage, number of lymph node metastasis, maximum tumor diameter, and preoperative serum CEA were identified as independent risk factors for distant metastasis: mrEMVI [odds ratio (OR) = 3.06], pathological N stage (OR = 6.52 for N1 vs N0; OR = 63.47 for N2 vs N0), preoperative serum CEA (OR = 0.27), tumor maximum diameter (OR = 1.03), number of lymph nodes metastasis (OR = 0.62). And, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted and the area under the curve was calculated (area under the curve [AUC) = 0.817, 95% CI = 0.744-0.890, P < .001].

mrEMVI, pathological N stage, number of lymph node metastasis, maximum tumor diameter and preoperative serum CEA are the independent risk factors for distant metastasis in T3 T4 rectal cancer. A comprehensive analysis of the risk factors for distant metastasis in rectal cancer can provide a reliable basis for formulating individualized treatment strategies, follow-up plans, and evaluating prognosis.