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Exchange rate instabilities during the Russia-Ukraine war: Evidence from V4 countries
Florin Aliu1, Jiří Kučera1, Jakub Horák1
1School of Expertness and Valuation, Institute of Technology and Business, České Budějovice, Czech Republic.
Heliyon
|February 8, 2024
Summary
The Russian Ruble did not impact Czech, Polish, or Hungarian currencies during the Russia-Ukraine war due to Euro-denominated gas contracts. However, the Czech crown significantly influenced the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- International Relations
- Geopolitics
Background:
- The Russia-Ukraine war created significant geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
- The Visegrad (V4) countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland) have strong economic ties with the Eurozone.
- Energy dependence and geopolitical proximity are key factors in regional economic stability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of the Russian Ruble on the Czech crown, Polish zloty, and Hungarian forint.
- To analyze exchange rate parities using the Euro as a base unit during the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- To assess the influence of geopolitical events on V4 currencies.
Main Methods:
- Time series analysis from February 1, 2022, to February 1, 2023.
- Employed VAR impulse response function, variance decomposition, vector error correction model, and Granger causality test.
- Utilized daily frequency exchange rate data.
Main Results:
- Despite Russian demands for Ruble payments, the Czech crown, Polish zloty, and Hungarian forint remained unaffected.
- Euro-denominated gas contracts with German contractors insulated V4 currencies from Ruble fluctuations.
- A significant influence of the Czech crown on the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint was observed during the period.
Conclusions:
- Currency pair instability is driven by both economic and geopolitical factors.
- Energy dependence on autocratic states poses risks to national security and currency stability.
- Geographical proximity to conflict zones can critically impact national currency values.
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