Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: The case of GADA special economic zone

Ethiopia is a country in East Africa experiencing significant economic growth in recent years, with an increasing electricity demand. Ensuring sustainable and efficient energy for newly developed industries and economic zones is crucial. In this study, a 15-year electric power demand forecast for the new economic zone under construction is conducted. The electrical power demand forecast is done for the year 2025-2040 by using bottom-up forecasting approach for three different scenarios. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is used to analyze residential, industrial, and general business sector electric power demand. The analysis of the assessed scenario shows that the economic zone's electric power demand increases by 52.2 % from the base year 2025-2040 for the baseline scenario, due to anticipated rapid urbanization, growth in population, economic expansion, and anticipated political stability. Compared to the baseline scenario, the total power demand shows a growth of 68 % from the forecast year (2025) to 2040 for the aggressive scenario, which ensures sustainable and efficient energy options that can draw businesses from both domestic and international baselines. In contrast, the total power demand in the conservative scenario shows a growth of 30.3 % from the base year (2025) to 2040. This reduction in demand compared to the two scenarios indicates a reflection of how much electricity power demand could be if certain development conditions failed to be realized in the economy. In general, both results show a rapid increase in power demand compared to the base year. To address this increasing demand, a supply-side demand analysis can be done for reference and aggressive scenarios. The analysis result indicated that by 2040, supply-side demand from the national grid will increase by 93.5 % and 175.9 % for reference and aggressive scenarios, respectively, compared to the base year 2025 demand. Due to the huge gap between the supply and demand in the country, onsite off-grid generation can be considered to cover 25 % of the demand in the economic zone. Hence, with the support of off-grid generation, the demand from the national grid was reduced to 45 % and 107 % for reference and aggressive scenarios with the support of onsite generation. Hence, this research clearly shows that there is a serious need for large scale electricity generation and distribution planning and preparation to meet the continually increasing electric power demand in a sustainable manner to accommodate the growth and change required to develop the modern economic zones in the country.