Spatio-temporal correspondence of aerosol optical depth between CMIP6 simulations and MODIS retrievals over India

In the present work, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm of the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite was utilised to evaluate the AOD simulations of newly emerged general circulation models (GCMs) of coupled model intercomparison project-phase 6 (CMIP6) over the Indian landmass. Further, the AOD from the CMIP6 models has been compared with its previous generation models from CMIP5 to examine the extent of uncertainties in AOD with reference to the MODIS AOD datasets. The evolution of aerosols over India using the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) has also been studied till the year 2050. The results show that the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models underestimated the mean annual AOD of the Indian region as a whole. A multi-model mean (MMM) of thirteen GCMs from CMIP6 showed an underestimation of AOD by 40 to 60% over the Indo-Gangetic plains, while an overestimation of 60 to 80% in AOD was observed over the Peninsular and Central Indian regions in comparison with MODIS for the study period of 2001 to 2014. In future simulations, the pathway SSP370 has shown a significant increasing trend of AOD whereas SSP126 and SSP585 have shown significant decreasing trends of AOD by the year 2050. In the future, the changes in the AOD will mainly be contributed by the anthropogenic aerosols (AOA, BC, and Sulphates) emissions in all SSPs. The large bias of MMM with the MODIS requires further research in terms of analysing the accuracy of emission datasets that have been used to simulate the AODs by the CMIP6 models over the Indian region.