Simulation of emission reduction path under the path of differentiated energy transformation in China's industrial cities: a case study of Shanghai

Wenyi Wang ¹, Yanran Chen ², Yiming Huang ²

⁰Stony Brook Institute at Anhui University, Hefei, 230601, China. r22114001@stu.ahu.edu.cn.

Environmental Science and Pollution Research International +

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February 8, 2024

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

Shanghai

Area Of Science

Environmental Science
Climate Change Research
Urban Sustainability

Background

Effective emission reduction planning requires long-term strategies.
Shanghai's unique urban development necessitates tailored emission reduction approaches.

Purpose Of The Study

To formulate a long-term, step-by-step emission reduction plan for Shanghai.
To predict the impact of various policy scenarios on carbon emissions.
To identify key drivers influencing emission reduction.

Main Methods

Developed a PSO-LSTM model integrated with the STIRPAT model.
Constructed three dynamic policy scenarios based on China's context.
Conducted short-, medium-, and long-term multivariate predictions.

Main Results

Energy consumption structure improvement positively impacts emission reduction.
Urbanization, industrial structure, technology, population, and economy increase emissions.
Shanghai's emission reduction path shows a steady decline across scenarios, with the GU scenario being most significant.

Conclusions

Shanghai can achieve steady carbon emission reduction through strategic planning.
Optimizing energy and industrial structures, alongside technological innovation, is crucial.
Promoting a circular economy model is recommended for enhanced emission reduction.

Keywords:

Carbon neutral Energy transformation Industrial city PSO-LSTM STIRPAT