Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations
Mengxuan Lin1, Yingrong Xin2, Jiaojiao Wang3
1Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese People's Liberation Army, Beijing, China.
Journal of Global Health
|February 9, 2024
Summary
Reducing HIV/AIDS prevalence and implementing travel restrictions are key to controlling the monkeypox (Mpox) epidemic. These strategies can significantly decrease Mpox cases and delay outbreaks.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Policy
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- The monkeypox (Mpox) epidemic poses a significant global health challenge.
- Understanding the drivers of Mpox transmission is crucial for effective control.
- Existing healthcare policies require data-driven insights to combat the epidemic.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify key drivers influencing the Mpox epidemic.
- To simulate the impact of various control policies on Mpox transmission.
- To inform the development of targeted public health strategies against Mpox.
Main Methods:
- A comprehensive analysis of 164 potential factors was conducted.
- Lasso regression and negative binomial regression were employed to identify significant Mpox drivers.
- Policy simulations evaluated the effectiveness of interventions at different stages of the epidemic.
Main Results:
- HIV/AIDS prevalence (regression coefficient: 1.417) and air transport passengers (regression coefficient: 0.766) were identified as significant determinants of Mpox risk.
- Decreasing HIV/AIDS prevalence by 10-40% correlated with a 6.28-7.26% reduction in Mpox cases.
- Implementing travel restrictions of 20-80% led to a 7.16-41.46% decrease in Mpox cases, with early restrictions postponing outbreaks.
Conclusions:
- Public health policies should prioritize travel restrictions during high-risk periods.
- Flight suspensions from high-risk nations are recommended alongside HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment.
- Integrated strategies combining travel control and ongoing HIV/AIDS management are essential for Mpox containment.
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