Systematic bias in representation of reaction time distribution

A correct perception of one's own abilities is essential for making appropriate decisions. A well-known bias in probability perception is that rare events are overestimated. Here, we examined whether such a bias also exists for action outcomes using a simple reaction task. In Experiment 1, after completing a set of 30 trials of the simple reaction task, participants were required to judge the probability that they would be able to respond before a given reference time when performing the task next. We assessed the difference between the actual reaction times and the probability judgement and found that the represented probability distribution was more widely distributed than the actual one, suggesting that low-probability events were overestimated and high-probability events were underestimated. Experiment 2 confirmed the presence of such a bias in the representation of both one's own and another's reaction times. In addition, Experiment 3 showed the presence of such a bias regardless of the difference between the representation of another's reaction times and the mere numerical representation. Furthermore, Experiment 4 found the presence of such a bias even when the information regarding actual reaction times was visually shown before the representation. The present results reveal the existence of a highly robust bias in the representation of motor performance, which reflects the ubiquitous bias in probability perception and is difficult to eliminate.