Mapping of population growth influence on land use transformation from 1994 to 2015 in Madaba Governorate, Jordan

The Madaba Governorate, as the second-largest wheat producer in Jordan, holds a crucial position in safeguarding regional food security. Its evolving landscape, marked by changes in land use, presents environmental and socio-economic challenges that necessitate sustainable urban planning and land management practices. This study delves into the intricate relationship between the conversion of agricultural lands into urban areas and the concurrent rise in population within the Madaba Governorate. Utilizing a Markov model, this research employs land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1994, 2004, and 2015 to project future changes in 2025 and 2035 with an impressive 80% accuracy (kappa coefficient). The findings reveal a projected 6% increase in urban areas over the next decade and a notable 11.81% decline in rural lands, signifying a substantial urbanization trend. In response to these population-driven LULC dynamics, there is an urgent need for the implementation of sustainable land use planning and management solutions. Given the constraints of limited water resources in the region, this study also places emphasis on water resource management. Recommendations include measures such as restricting urban sprawl, preserving agricultural lands, managing population growth, and implementing water conservation strategies. These insights provide invaluable information for stakeholders in the Madaba Governorate, including policymakers and land use planners, fostering a comprehensive understanding of the complex interplay between regional water resources, population expansion, and land use changes.