Assessing and improving the veracity of international trade in captive-bred animals

Captive breeding is often seen as a solution to sustainably increasing the supply of individuals in the wildlife trade. To be an effective conservation measure this requires robust systems to verify the authenticity of captive-bred species. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) monitors the international trade in Listed species-which for many taxa is dominated by captive-bred individuals-using the Review of Captive Trade (RCT) process. A key question is how best to identify laundered or inauthentic captive-bred trade and how has this changed over time and space. We develop targeted assessments based on multiple RCT criteria to identify probable instances of laundering and misuse of source and purpose codes in international trade records, and apply this to 39,167 records of captive trade from 2000 to 2020 spanning 53,674,762 individuals. We find a very low proportion of trade volume (1.8%, 37,835 individuals) misreported as originating from non-existent, registered Appendix I-breeding facilities, and low instances of exporter-reported captive trade being recorded by importers as wild-sourced (<4%) or ranched (1%). We also find that <2% of species-year-exporter records have abrupt shifts from wild to captive sources, potentially indicating laundering. Conversely, we find high incidences of exporter- and importer-reported trade differing in whether the trade was commercial or not - a phenomenon we attribute to differing definitions, not illegal activity. Our results indicate a low incidence of concerning international trade being reported, but we suggest this likely stems from reporting requirements that limit our assessments. We highlight additional trade data that, if embedded into Party's annual reports, would vastly improve inferential potential, greatly increasing the number of records (Appendix II and III species) that could be verified with minimal effort for management authorities.