Prediction of xerostomia in elderly based on clinical characteristics and salivary flow rate with machine learning

Xerostomia may be accompanied by changes in salivary flow rate and the incidence increases in elderly. We aimed to use machine learning algorithms, to identify significant predictors for the presence of xerostomia. This study is the first to predict xerostomia with salivary flow rate in elderly based on artificial intelligence. In a cross-sectional study, 829 patients with oral discomfort were enrolled, and six features (sex, age, unstimulated and stimulated salivary flow rates (UFR and SFR, respectively), number of systemic diseases, and medication usage) were used in four machine learning algorithms to predict the presence of xerostomia. The incidence of xerostomia increased with age. The SFR was significantly higher than the UFR, and the UFR and SFR were significantly correlated. The UFR, but not SFR, decreased with age significantly. In patients more than 60 years of age, the UFR had a significantly higher predictive accuracy for xerostomia than the SFR. Using machine learning algorithms with tenfold cross-validation, the prediction accuracy increased significantly. In particular, the prediction accuracy of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) algorithm that combined UFR and SFR data was significantly better than either UFR or SFR individually. Moreover, when sex, age, number of systemic diseases, and number of medications were added to the MLP model, the prediction accuracy increased from 56 to 68%.