Validation of the Prognostic Performance of Breast Cancer Index in Hormone Receptor-Positive Postmenopausal Breast...

Patients with early-stage hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer face a prolonged risk of recurrence even after adjuvant endocrine therapy. The Breast Cancer Index (BCI) is significantly prognostic for overall (0-10 years) and late (5-10 years) distant recurrence (DR) risk in N0 and N1 patients. Here, BCI prognostic performance was evaluated in HR+ postmenopausal women from the Tamoxifen and Exemestane Adjuvant Multinational (TEAM) trial.

3,544 patients were included in the analysis (N = 1,519 N0, N = 2,025 N+). BCI risk groups were calculated using pre-specified cutoff points. Kaplan-Meier analyses and log-rank tests were used to assess the prognostic significance of BCI risk groups based on DR. Hazard ratios (HR) and confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using Cox models with and without clinical covariates.

For overall 10-year DR, BCI was significantly prognostic in Ni0 (N = 1,196) and N1 (N = 1,234) patients who did not receive prior chemotherapy (P < 0.001). In patients who were DR-free for 5 years, 10-year late DR rates for low- and high-risk groups were 5.4% and 9.3% (N0 cohort, N = 1,285) and 4.8% and 12.2% (N1 cohort, N = 1,625) with multivariate HRs of 2.25 (95% CI, 1.30-3.88; P = 0.004) and 2.67 (95% CI, 1.53-4.63; P < 0.001), respectively. Late DR performance was substantially improved using previously optimized cutoff points, identifying BCI low-risk groups with even lower 10-year late DR rates of 3.8% and 2.7% in N0 and N1 patients, respectively.

The TEAM trial represents the largest prognostic validation study for BCI to date and provides a more representative assessment of late DR risk to guide individualized treatment decision-making for HR+ patients with early-stage breast cancer.