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Cointegrations in house price dynamics and ageing population risks.

William M Cheung1

  • 1Waseda Business School, Faculty of Commerce, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan.

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|February 12, 2024
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Summary

Rural house prices are key to understanding ageing populations, with deviations predicting future prices and migration. This finding is crucial for macroprudential policies in ageing societies.

Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Demography
  • Housing Market Analysis

Background:

  • Rural areas face rapid population ageing, challenging traditional life cycle housing demand theories.
  • Rural house prices are increasing faster than urban areas, contrary to expectations for ageing populations.
  • Existing literature has overlooked the relationship between rural housing dynamics and ageing demographics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between ageing population dynamics and rural housing market risk.
  • To explain why rural house prices rise faster than urban areas despite ageing populations.
  • To develop an empirical framework for analyzing rural housing and demographic trends.

Main Methods:

  • Introduction of a flexible, empirical cointegration-based framework.

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  • Analysis of short-term deviations of house prices from cointegration restrictions.
  • Comparative analysis between rural and urban housing markets.

    • Main Results:

    • Short-term house price deviations from cointegration restrictions strongly predict future rural house prices and migration (1-4 years ahead).
    • This predictive power is specific to rural areas and is not observed in urban markets or when cointegration restrictions are ignored.
    • Rural house prices are identified as the critical factor in understanding this cointegration restriction.

    Conclusions:

    • Cointegration restrictions offer crucial insights into rural housing markets and ageing populations.
    • Macroprudential policies incorporating these cointegration restrictions can support rural development and reverse population decline.
    • Understanding long-run ageing risks in rural housing markets through cointegration is vital for policy formulation.