A comprehensive patient-specific prediction model for temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis progression

Temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis (TMJ OA) is a prevalent degenerative disease characterized by chronic pain and impaired jaw function. The complexity of TMJ OA has hindered the development of prognostic tools, posing a significant challenge in timely, patient-specific management. Addressing this gap, our research employs a comprehensive, multidimensional approach to advance TMJ OA prognostication. We conducted a prospective study with 106 subjects, 74 of whom were followed up after 2 to 3 y of conservative treatment. Central to our methodology is the development of an innovative, open-source predictive modeling framework, the Ensemble via Hierarchical Predictions through Nested cross-validation tool (EHPN). This framework synergistically integrates 18 feature selection, statistical, and machine learning methods to yield an accuracy of 0.87, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72 and an F1 score of 0.82. Our study, beyond technical advancements, emphasizes the global impact of TMJ OA, recognizing its unique demographic occurrence. We highlight key factors influencing TMJ OA progression. Using SHAP analysis, we identified personalized prognostic predictors: lower values of headache, lower back pain, restless sleep, condyle high gray level-GL-run emphasis, articular fossa GL nonuniformity, and long-run low GL emphasis; and higher values of superior joint space, mouth opening, saliva Vascular-endothelium-growth-factor, Matrix-metalloproteinase-7, serum Epithelial-neutrophil-activating-peptide, and age indicate recovery likelihood. Our multidimensional and multimodal EHPN tool enhances clinicians' decision-making, offering a transformative translational infrastructure. The EHPN model stands as a significant contribution to precision medicine, offering a paradigm shift in the management of temporomandibular disorders and potentially influencing broader applications in personalized healthcare.