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Predation and spatial connectivity interact to shape ecosystem resilience to an ongoing regime shift.

Agnes B Olin1,2, Ulf Bergström3, Örjan Bodin4

  • 1Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden. agnes.olin@slu.se.

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Ecosystem resilience to regime shifts improves with habitat connectivity for predatory fish, especially when top predator (seal, cormorant) densities are low and temperatures are high.

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Area of Science:

  • Marine ecology
  • Ecosystem resilience
  • Fisheries science

Background:

  • Ecosystem regime shifts pose significant ecological and economic risks.
  • Understanding factors that enhance ecosystem resilience is a priority.
  • Theory suggests spatial connectivity and local environment influence resilience, but empirical evidence is limited.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically test how spatial connectivity and local environmental factors influence ecosystem resilience.
  • To investigate resilience to an ongoing regime shift in the Baltic Sea, characterized by a change in fish dominance.
  • To assess the interacting effects of habitat connectivity, top predator densities, and temperature on this regime shift.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized over 7000 fish sampling events from the Baltic Sea coast.
  • Analyzed an ongoing, spatially propagating regime shift from predatory fish to mesopredators.
  • Employed statistical methods to control for other drivers, including mesopredator and top predator densities, and temperature.

Main Results:

  • Predatory fish habitat connectivity was found to increase resilience to the regime shift.
  • This effect was conditional on low densities of top predators (seals, cormorants).
  • Increased temperature positively correlated with resilience, likely via enhanced predatory fish growth and recruitment.

Conclusions:

  • Spatial connectivity and local environmental conditions (temperature, top predator abundance) interact to shape ecosystem resilience.
  • Findings support theoretical predictions regarding the drivers of resilience in the face of ecological change.
  • The study provides empirical evidence for managing marine ecosystems to enhance resilience to regime shifts.