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Predation and spatial connectivity interact to shape ecosystem resilience to an ongoing regime shift.
Agnes B Olin1,2, Ulf Bergström3, Örjan Bodin4
1Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden. agnes.olin@slu.se.
Nature Communications
|February 12, 2024
Summary
Ecosystem resilience to regime shifts improves with habitat connectivity for predatory fish, especially when top predator (seal, cormorant) densities are low and temperatures are high.
Area of Science:
- Marine ecology
- Ecosystem resilience
- Fisheries science
Background:
- Ecosystem regime shifts pose significant ecological and economic risks.
- Understanding factors that enhance ecosystem resilience is a priority.
- Theory suggests spatial connectivity and local environment influence resilience, but empirical evidence is limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To empirically test how spatial connectivity and local environmental factors influence ecosystem resilience.
- To investigate resilience to an ongoing regime shift in the Baltic Sea, characterized by a change in fish dominance.
- To assess the interacting effects of habitat connectivity, top predator densities, and temperature on this regime shift.
Main Methods:
- Utilized over 7000 fish sampling events from the Baltic Sea coast.
- Analyzed an ongoing, spatially propagating regime shift from predatory fish to mesopredators.
- Employed statistical methods to control for other drivers, including mesopredator and top predator densities, and temperature.
Main Results:
- Predatory fish habitat connectivity was found to increase resilience to the regime shift.
- This effect was conditional on low densities of top predators (seals, cormorants).
- Increased temperature positively correlated with resilience, likely via enhanced predatory fish growth and recruitment.
Conclusions:
- Spatial connectivity and local environmental conditions (temperature, top predator abundance) interact to shape ecosystem resilience.
- Findings support theoretical predictions regarding the drivers of resilience in the face of ecological change.
- The study provides empirical evidence for managing marine ecosystems to enhance resilience to regime shifts.
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