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Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system.

Bernardo M Flores1, Encarni Montoya2, Boris Sakschewski3

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The Amazon rainforest faces a critical tipping point due to climate change, deforestation, and fires. Urgent local and global action is needed to prevent widespread forest collapse and maintain ecosystem resilience.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Amazonian forests have historically shown resilience to climate variability for millions of years.
  • The Amazon is now facing unprecedented stress from rising temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation, and fires.
  • Existing forest-environment feedbacks are shifting, increasing the risk of ecosystem collapse.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze key drivers of water stress in Amazonian forests.
  • To identify critical thresholds that could lead to forest collapse.
  • To project the future exposure of Amazonian forests to compounding disturbances.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress.
  • Spatial analysis of various disturbances.
  • Identification of plausible ecosystem trajectories based on disturbed forest examples.

Main Results:

  • By 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests may face compounding disturbances.
  • These disturbances could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and exacerbate climate change.
  • Three plausible ecosystem trajectories with different feedbacks and conditions were identified.

Conclusions:

  • The Amazon's resilience is threatened by novel feedbacks and increasing environmental stress.
  • Urgent local actions (halting deforestation, restoration) and global actions (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) are crucial.
  • While complexity adds uncertainty, it also highlights opportunities for effective conservation strategies.