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Association between electrocardiographic abnormalities and flood exposure among middle-aged and elderly people: A
Pengfei Li1, Jingyi Wu2, Jiwei Li3
1Institute of Reproductive and Child Health / National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics / Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China; Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University, Hangzhou 311215, China; Institute of Medical Technology, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing 100191, China.
Background:
Flooding has become more frequent and intensive due to climate change, particularly in Asian countries. However, evidence on the long-term health effects of floods from large-scale studies on the vulnerable aged population in China is insufficient. This study analyzed the long-term effects of exposure to flood on electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities, a commonly used indicator of cardiovascular disease (CVD) screening, in middle-aged and elderly people.
Method:
We evaluated the Chinese National Stroke Screening Survey data of 80,711 follow-up records from 38,375 participants aged > 40 years with two or more visits between 2013 and 2018 in this longitudinal study. Flood exposure was assessed as the presence of a satellite-detected flooded area within 500 m of the residence within 5 years before the survey date. The association between ECG abnormalities and flood exposure was analyzed using a random effects model with multiple adjustments. As age is an important CVD risk factor, a varying-coefficient function was derived to estimate the nonlinear modifying effect of age on the association between ECG abnormalities and flood exposure. The strata-specific associations between ECG abnormalities and flood exposure were applied to characterize vulnerability to flood.
Results:
The fully adjusted model suggested that flood exposure was associated with an increased risk for ECG abnormalities among the middle-aged and elderly population (odds ratio [OR] 1.74, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.49, 2.03). The ORs of flood exposure for ECG suggesting atrial fibrillation, ST depression, and left ventricular hypertrophy were 1.85 (95 % CI 1.16, 2.94), 6.92 (95 % CI 5.23, 9.16), and 1.55 (95 % CI 0.66, 3.65), respectively. These associations were generally robust in various subpopulations, while a sublinear curve for the negative modifying effect of age was observed on the population vulnerability to flood.
Conclusion:
Flood exposure was associated with an increased long-term risk for an ECG abnormality. The need for effective measures to mitigate vulnerability to flood is not negligible in China.
