Air quality and health benefits for different heating decarbonization pathways in China

The urgent need for decarbonization in China's heating system, comprised of approximately one hundred thousand boilers, is imperative to meet climate and clean air objectives. To formulate national and regional strategies, we developed an integrated model framework that combines a facility-level emission inventory, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then explore the air quality and health benefits of alternative heating decarbonization pathways, including the retirement of coal-fired industrial boilers (CFIBs) for replacement with grid-bound heat supply systems, coal-to-gas conversion, and coal-to-biomass conversion. The gas replacement pathway shows the greatest potential for reducing PM_2.5 concentration by 2.8 (2.3-3.4) μg/m³ by 2060, avoiding 23,100 (19,600-26,500) premature deaths. In comparison, the biomass replacement pathway offers slightly lower environmental and health benefits, but is likely to reduce costs by approximately two-thirds. Provincially, optimal pathways vary - Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Chongqing favor coal-to-gas conversion, while Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi show promise in CFIBs retirement. Henan leads in environmental and health benefits. Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, rich in biomass resources, present opportunities for coal-to-biomass conversion.