Projecting the Future Registered Nurse Workforce After the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Workforce Dynamics
• Nursing Economics
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• The registered nurse (RN) workforce is critical for healthcare delivery systems.
• A significant decrease in the US RN workforce occurred in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The long-term impact of this decline on RN workforce growth remained uncertain.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze recent trends in registered nurse (RN) employment up to 2023.
• To forecast the growth trajectory of the RN workforce through 2035.
• To assess the recovery and future outlook of the nursing workforce post-pandemic.

Main Methods:

• Descriptive analysis of RN employment trends from 1982 to 2023 using Current Population Survey data.
• Retrospective cohort analysis examining RN employment by birth year and age.
• Forecasting RN workforce size and age distribution through 2035.

Main Results:

• RN employment rebounded after a 2021 decline, with 2022-2023 numbers 6% higher than 2019 levels.
• The RN workforce is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 million full-time equivalents (FTEs) by 2035.
• The 35-49 age group will drive growth, comprising 47% of the RN workforce by 2035.

Conclusions:

• The 2021 drop in RN employment appears to have been a temporary pandemic-related event.
• Current projections suggest the RN workforce will grow significantly, aligning with pre-pandemic forecasts.
• The nursing workforce is expected to expand robustly, ensuring continued healthcare capacity.