Establishment and external validation of prognosis prediction nomogram for patients with distant metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: based on a large population

Chen Yuan ^1,2,3,4, Shubing Zou ^1,2,3, Kai Wang ^1,2,3

⁰Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of General Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 330006, Nanchang, China.

Bmc Cancer +

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February 16, 2024

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

This study developed a nomogram to predict prognosis for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) and distant metastasis (DM). The nomogram demonstrated good accuracy and clinical applicability, aiding in improving patient outcomes.

Area Of Science

Oncology
Medical Statistics

Background

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) frequently presents with distant metastasis (DM) at diagnosis.
Predictive models for ICC with DM prognosis are scarce.

Purpose Of The Study

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and distant metastasis.
To identify independent prognostic factors for improved patient outcome prediction.

Main Methods

Retrospective analysis of 572 ICC with DM patients from the SEER database (2005-2019) and 32 from a single institution (2014-2019).
Data split into training (70%) and validation (30%) cohorts.
Nomogram construction using Cox regression; validation via ROC curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Main Results

Age, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy identified as independent prognostic factors.
Established nomogram showed good predictive accuracy: AUCs for 3, 6, 9-month survival were 0.866, 0.841, and 0.786, respectively.
Calibration curves and DCA confirmed the nomogram's predictive accuracy and clinical utility.

Conclusions

The developed nomogram accurately predicts prognosis for patients with distant metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (DM-ICC).
This tool holds significant potential for improving the clinical management and outcomes of DM-ICC patients.

Keywords:

Distant metastasis Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) Nomogram Prognosis Risk factors