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The Clade Replacement Theory: a framework to study age-dependent extinction.

Carlos Calderón Del Cid1,2,3, Fabricio Villalobos4, Ricardo Dobrovolski5

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|February 17, 2024
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Summary

Evolutionary age influences extinction risk, with the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) predicting scenarios based on ecological shifts. The theory unifies ecological and evolutionary factors to explain age-dependent extinction (ADE) patterns.

Keywords:
competitionecologyevolutionextinctiontheoretical structuration

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Ecology
  • Paleontology

Background:

  • The relationship between species' evolutionary age and extinction probability lacks scientific consensus.
  • Existing studies propose various age-dependent extinction (ADE) patterns, but a universal pattern remains debated.
  • Closely related species may exhibit similar ADE patterns due to shared fitness-associated traits.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To formalize the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) integrating ecological and evolutionary aspects of species age and extinction.
  • To develop testable predictions for ADE patterns based on clade competition and environmental dynamics.
  • To provide a framework for unifying research on age-dependent extinction.

Main Methods:

  • Developing the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) based on previous theoretical work.
  • Formalizing propositions regarding incumbency effects and ecological shifts influencing ADE.
  • Deriving predictions on ADE scenarios based on the occurrence of ecological shifts.

Main Results:

  • The CRT predicts two main ADE scenarios: negative (younger species more prone to extinction) due to incumbency, and positive (extinction probability increases with age) due to ecological shifts.
  • The occurrence of an ecological shift is predicted to define the prevailing ADE scenario.
  • The theory offers a unified framework to analyze diversification dynamics and extinction selectivity.

Conclusions:

  • The Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) provides a robust framework for understanding age-dependent extinction (ADE).
  • Future empirical testing of CRT predictions is crucial for validating its applicability across diverse taxa.
  • CRT can unify disparate findings in evolutionary biology and ecology, fostering new research avenues.