Experience and findings from surveillance peer review in Nigeria, August 2017-May 2019

acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance is the gold standard of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) for detecting cases of poliomyelitis and tracking poliovirus transmission. Nigeria's AFP surveillance performance indicators are among the highest in countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region. The primary AFP surveillance performance indicators are the rate of non-polio AFP among children and the proportion of timely, adequate specimen collection. The surveillance working group of the National Emergency Operations Centre assessed the quality of AFP surveillance data in some reportedly high-performing states.

we conducted a retrospective review of AFP surveillance performance indicators in Nigeria for 2010-2019. We also reviewed data in reports from four groups of surveillance peer reviews and validation visits (conducted by in-country GPEI partners) during August 2017-May 2019 in 16 states with high primary AFP surveillance indicators; the validation visits reviewed clinical information and the dates of specimen collection and onset of paralysis with caretakers.

there were consistently increasing AFP surveillance primary performance indicators during 2010-2016, followed by declines during 2017-2019. From the data for 16 states with peer reviews conducted from August 2017-May 2019, overall concordance of reported and "true" (validated) AFP indicator data in peer review investigations was highly variable. True AFP concordance ranged from 58%-100%, and stool timeliness concordance ranged from 56%-95%. The most common clinical causes of reported AFP cases that were not true AFP were spastic paralysis, malaria, sickle cell disease, and malnutrition. All the states that participated in peer reviews developed surveillance improvement plans based on the gaps identified.

Nigeria has highly sensitive AFP surveillance according to reported primary AFP performance indicators. The findings of peer reviews indicate that the AFP surveillance system needs to be strengthened and well-supervised to enhance data quality.