Historical reconstruction of inaccessibility status in Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Borno and Yobe States, Nigeria, 2010-2020
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission continued undetected in Nigeria due to armed insurgency limiting access. Innovative immunization and surveillance efforts significantly reduced the unvaccinated population, lowering WPV circulation risk.
Area Of Science
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Control
Background
- Wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission persisted in Northeast Nigeria's security-compromised areas after 2011, with inaccessibility hindering vaccination and surveillance.
- Armed insurgency led to significant population displacement, complicating efforts to reach children under 5 with essential polio interventions.
Purpose Of The Study
- To analyze the historical extent of inaccessibility in security-compromised regions of Northeast Nigeria from 2010 to 2020.
- To evaluate the impact of access changes on polio eradication efforts and assess the risk of undetected WPV circulation.
Main Methods
- Collected empirical historical data on area inaccessibility from polio eradication staff (2010-2020).
- Compared recalled access data with geospatial vaccinator tracking and satellite imagery of population displacements.
- Analyzed population estimates in security-compromised areas using satellite data.
Main Results
- Area inaccessibility peaked between 2014-2016, showing strong correlation with population displacement data from satellite imagery.
- Staff-recalled access data demonstrated consistency with vaccinator tracking and satellite-derived population movement patterns.
- Innovative immunization and surveillance initiatives were implemented as access improved, alongside military operations liberating residents.
Conclusions
- Despite fluctuating inaccessibility, targeted interventions successfully reduced the unvaccinated population in previously inaccessible areas.
- These combined efforts significantly decreased the probability of undetected wild poliovirus circulation among remaining populations.
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