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When and how can we predict adaptive responses to climate change?
Mark C Urban1, Janne Swaegers2, Robby Stoks2
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Center of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States.
Evolution Letters
|February 19, 2024
Summary
Predicting evolutionary adaptation to climate change is challenging. While some traits are more predictable, genetic variation for adaptation remains moderate, highlighting the need for more data and research.
Area of Science:
- Evolutionary biology
- Climate change science
- Genetics
Background:
- Predicting species' adaptive responses to climate change is a major scientific challenge.
- Understanding the limits and opportunities in predicting evolutionary adaptation is crucial for conservation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the current and future predictability of evolutionary adaptation to climate change.
- To identify factors influencing the accuracy of adaptation predictions.
- To assess the optimism regarding future prediction capabilities.
Main Methods:
- Literature review and synthesis of contributions to a special issue on evolutionary adaptation.
- Survey of authors specializing in climate change adaptation.
- Meta-analysis of trait heritability and evolvability under climate change conditions.
Main Results:
- Predictions are more accurate for traits with clear genotype-phenotype links and strong climate selection.
- Meta-analysis shows moderate heritability and evolvability, with no significant change between current and future climate conditions.
- Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, particularly for data-limited species.
Conclusions:
- Predicting evolutionary adaptation to climate change is feasible for certain traits but remains uncertain for others.
- Continued research on diverse organisms, ecology, and functional genomics will improve prediction accuracy.
- Despite challenges, advancements offer hope for reducing uncertainties in future evolutionary responses to climate change.
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