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Influenza vaccination allocation in tropical settings under constrained resources
Joseph L Servadio1,2, Marc Choisy3,4, Pham Quang Thai5,6
1Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States.
Medrxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
|February 19, 2024
Summary
Prioritizing influenza vaccination for school-aged children (10-19) in tropical settings significantly reduces annual mortality. Optimal strategies involve year-round vaccination and careful distribution across age groups, not just focusing on the elderly.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Virology
Background:
- Influenza virus seasonality and vaccine strategies vary globally, with current recommendations often overlooking younger populations.
- Tropical regions present unique challenges for influenza control due to differing seasonality and vaccine supply dynamics.
Approach:
- Developed an age-structured epidemiological model for influenza transmission in a tropical, low-income setting.
- Simulated various vaccination timings and age-specific allocations across a range of vaccine availabilities (10%–90%).
Key Points:
- Year-round influenza vaccination proved more effective than seasonal-only strategies.
- Prioritizing the 10-19 age group for vaccination minimized annual influenza mortality across most scenarios.
- Optimal strategies require allocating a plurality of vaccines to school-aged children, but also optimizing distribution to other age groups.
Conclusions:
- Vaccinating school-aged children offers substantial indirect benefits, leading to lower mean and minimum mortality compared to elderly-focused strategies.
- While targeting children is crucial, the overall distribution strategy significantly impacts mortality reduction outcomes.
