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Quantitative risk estimation of CNG station by using fuzzy bayesian networks and consequence modeling
Behzad Abbasi Kharajou1, Hassan Ahmadi2, Masoud Rafiei3
1Department of Urban Planning, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran.
Scientific Reports
|February 21, 2024
Summary
Risk assessment at compressed natural gas (CNG) stations is crucial for urban safety. Combining Fuzzy Bayesian Networks and Bow-tie diagrams revealed that incompatible land uses significantly increase social risks, necessitating careful urban planning.
Area of Science:
- Risk assessment and safety engineering.
- Urban planning and disaster management.
- Environmental and geological sciences.
Background:
- Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) stations pose explosion and fire risks in urban environments.
- Inadequate risk assessment can lead to severe accidents and casualties.
- The proximity of incompatible land uses exacerbates potential hazards.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate risk at a multipurpose CNG/LPG station using integrated models.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of Fuzzy Bayesian Networks and Bow-tie diagrams in risk assessment.
- To identify the impact of land use on accident scenarios and social risks.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a combination of Fuzzy Bayesian Network, Bow-tie Diagram, and consequence modeling.
- Developed a safety team to identify 25 basic and intermediate events for the Bow-tie diagram.
- Applied fuzzy theory for event probability due to data limitations and used GeNLe software for Bayesian network construction.
- Performed risk estimation using PHAST/SAFETI (V8.22) and GIS for spatial analysis of explosion effects.
Main Results:
- The Bayesian network model indicated higher social risks compared to the Bow-tie diagram.
- The Bow-tie diagram alone was deemed insufficient for comprehensive risk assessment.
- Incompatible land uses, particularly residential and administrative, significantly amplify accident scenario impacts.
Conclusions:
- Integrated risk assessment models are essential for understanding complex hazards at CNG stations.
- Urban planners and city managers must consider land use compatibility to mitigate risks.
- Findings support the implementation of targeted control measures, emergency response plans, and public training programs.
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