Modelling and predicting online vaccination views using bow-tie decomposition

Social media has become increasingly important in shaping public vaccination views, especially since the COVID-19 outbreak. This paper uses bow-tie structure to analyse a temporal dataset of directed online social networks that represent the information exchange among anti-vaccination, pro-vaccination and neutral Facebook pages. Bow-tie structure decomposes a network into seven components, with two components, strongly connected component (SCC) and out-periphery component (OUT), emphasized in this paper: SCC is the largest strongly connected component, acting as an 'information magnifier', and OUT contains all nodes with a directed path from a node in SCC, acting as an 'information creator'. We consistently observe statistically significant bow-tie structures with different dominant components for each vaccination group over time. In particular, the anti-vaccination group has a large OUT, and the pro-vaccination group has a large SCC. We further investigate changes in opinions over time, as measured by fan count variations, using agent-based simulations and machine learning models. Across both methods, accounting for bow-tie decomposition better reflects information flow differences among vaccination groups and improves our opinion dynamics prediction results. The modelling frameworks we consider can be applied to any multi-stance temporal network and could form a basis for exploring opinion dynamics using bow-tie structure in a wide range of applications.