Ensemble evaluation of potential distribution of Procambarus clarkii using multiple species distribution models

Procambarus clarkii is a notorious invasive species that has led to ecological concerns owing to its high viability and rapid reproduction. South Korea, a country exposed to a high risk of introduction of invasive species due to active international trade, has suffered from recent massive invasions by invasive species, necessitating the evaluation of potential areas requiring intensive monitoring. In this study, we developed two different types of species distribution models, CLIMEX and random forest, for P. clarkii using occurrence records from the United States. The potential distribution in the United States was predicted along coastal lines and inland regions located below 40°N latitude The model was then applied to evaluate the potential distribution in South Korea, and an ensemble map was constructed to identify the most vulnerable domestic regions. According to both models, the domestic potential distribution was highest in most areas located at low altitudes. In the ensemble model, most of the low-altitude western regions, the eastern coast, and some southern inland regions were predicted to be suitable for the distribution of P. clarkii, and a similar distribution pattern was predicted when the model was projected into the future climate. Through this study, it is possible to secure basic data that can be used for the early monitoring of the introduction and subsequent distribution of P. clarkii.