Prediction of suicidal ideation among preadolescent children with machine learning models: A longitudinal study

Machine learning (ML) has been widely used to predict suicidal ideation (SI) in adolescents and adults. Nevertheless, studies of accurate and efficient models of SI prediction with preadolescent children are still needed because SI is surprisingly prevalent during the transition into adolescence. This study aimed to explore the potential of ML models to predict SI among preadolescent children.

A total of 4691 Chinese children (54.89 % boys, M_age = 10.92 at baseline) and their parents completed relevant measures at baseline and the children provided 6-month follow-up data for SI. The current study compared four ML models: Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), to predict SI and to identify variables with predictive value based on the best-performing model among Chinese preadolescent children.

The RF model achieved the highest discriminant performance with an AUC of 0.92, accuracy of 0.93 (balanced accuracy = 0.88). The factors of internalizing problems, externalizing problems, neuroticism, childhood maltreatment, and subjective well-being in school demonstrated the highest values in predicting SI.

The findings of this study suggested that ML models based on the observation and assessment of children's general characteristics and experiences in everyday life can serve as convenient screening and evaluation tools for suicide risk assessment among Chinese preadolescent children. The findings also provide insights for early intervention.