Temporal trends in hemodialysis access creation during the fistula first era

Although forearm arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are the preferred initial vascular access for hemodialysis based on national guidelines, there are no population-level studies evaluating trends in creation of forearm vs upper arm AVFs and arteriovenous grafts (AVGs). The purpose of this study was to report temporal trends in first-time permanent hemodialysis access type, and to assess the effect of national initiatives on rates of AVF placement.

Retrospective cross-sectional study (2012-2022) utilizing the Vascular Quality Initiative database. All patients older than 18 years with creation of first-time upper extremity surgical hemodialysis access were included. Anatomic location of the AVF or AVG (forearm vs upper arm) was defined based on inflow artery, outflow vein, and presumed cannulation zone. Primary analysis examined temporal trends in rates of forearm vs upper arm AVFs and AVGs using time series analyses (modified Mann-Kendall test). Subgroup analyses examined rates of access configuration stratified by age, sex, race, dialysis, and socioeconomic status. Interrupted time series analysis was performed to assess the effect of the 2015 Fistula First Catheter Last initiative on rates of AVFs.

Of the 52,170 accesses, 57.9% were upper arm AVFs, 25.2% were forearm AVFs, 15.4% were upper arm AVGs, and 1.5% were forearm AVGs. From 2012 to 2022, there was no significant change in overall rates of forearm or upper arm AVFs. There was a numerical increase in upper arm AVGs (13.9 to 18.2 per 100; P = .09), whereas forearm AVGs significantly declined (1.8 to 0.7 per 100; P = .02). In subgroup analyses, we observed a decrease in forearm AVFs among men (33.1 to 28.7 per 100; P = .04) and disadvantaged (Area Deprivation Index percentile ≥50) patients (29.0 to 20.7 per 100; P = .04), whereas female (17.2 to 23.1 per 100; P = .03), Black (15.6 to 24.5 per 100; P < .01), elderly (age ≥80 years) (18.7 to 32.5 per 100; P < .01), and disadvantaged (13.6 to 20.5 per 100; P < .01) patients had a significant increase in upper arm AVGs. The Fistula First Catheter Last initiative had no effect on the rate of AVF placement (83.2 to 83.7 per 100; P=.37).

Despite national initiatives to promote autogenous vascular access, the rates of first-time AVFs have remained relatively constant, with forearm AVFs only representing one-quarter of all permanent surgical accesses. Furthermore, elderly, Black, female, and disadvantaged patients saw an increase in upper arm AVGs. Further efforts to elucidate factors associated with forearm AVF placement, as well as potential physician, center, and regional variation is warranted.