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A nomogram for predicting adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma.

Lei Gong1, Ping Li1, Jingjing Liu2

  • 1Department of Endocrinology and Metabolic Diseases, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China.

BMC Cancer
|February 23, 2024
PubMed
Summary

Tumor size over 0.6 cm is a key risk factor for adverse pathology in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). A developed nomogram aids in predicting these adverse features for better treatment decisions.

Keywords:
Adverse pathologic featuresLow-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomaNomogram

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Area of Science:

  • Endocrinology
  • Oncology
  • Surgical Pathology

Background:

  • Identifying risk factors for adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is crucial for guiding treatment decisions.
  • This study focuses on patients with low-risk PTMC to understand predictors of unfavorable pathological outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a predictive nomogram for adverse pathologic features in patients with low-risk PTMC.
  • To identify independent risk factors associated with adverse pathologic findings in PTMC.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 662 low-risk PTMC patients who underwent thyroid surgery.
  • Logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors and construct a predictive nomogram.

Main Results:

  • Tumor diameter greater than 0.6 cm was a significant risk factor for adverse pathologic features (p < 0.05).
  • Age, gender, family history, autoimmune thyroiditis, and BRAF V600E mutation were not significantly correlated with adverse features (p > 0.05).
  • The developed nomogram demonstrated good predictive value (AUC 0.645) and clinical utility.

Conclusions:

  • Tumor size > 0.60 cm is an independent risk factor for adverse pathologic features in low-risk PTMC.
  • The constructed nomogram is a valuable and consistent tool for predicting adverse pathologic features in this patient group.