Work ability trends 2000-2020 and birth-cohort projections until 2040 in Finland

Area of Science:

• Occupational Health
• Sociology
• Public Health

Background:

• Perceived work ability is a key indicator of workforce health and sustainability.
• Understanding age-group and birth-cohort trends is crucial for predicting future workforce capacity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze age-group and birth-cohort trends in perceived work ability in Finland from 2000-2020.
• To project future perceived work ability up to 2040 based on observed birth-cohort developments.

Main Methods:

• Utilized ten population-representative cross-sectional surveys (N=61,087) from Finland (2000-2020).
• Classified self-reported work ability (0-10 scale) into limited (0-5), intermediate (6-7), and good (8-10) categories.
• Employed multiple imputation for projecting future work ability trends.

Main Results:

• Work ability declined steadily in older birth cohorts; younger cohorts showed stability until 2017, followed by a sharp decline (2017-2020).
• Trends by age group (2000-2020) showed declining good work ability in 20-44-year-olds, stable in 45-54-year-olds, and improving in those 55+.
• Projections indicate a 10-15 percentage point decline in good work ability among 45-74-year-olds by 2040.

Conclusions:

• Perceived work ability is projected to decline across all age groups (30-74 years) by 2040.
• Significant efforts are required to counteract the anticipated decline in work ability.
• Findings highlight the need for proactive strategies to maintain workforce health and productivity.