Altered Motor Activity Patterns within 10-Minute Timescale Predict Incident Clinical Alzheimer's Disease

Fractal motor activity regulation (FMAR), characterized by self-similar temporal patterns in motor activity across timescales, is robust in healthy young humans but degrades with aging and in Alzheimer's disease (AD).

To determine the timescales where alterations of FMAR can best predict the clinical onset of AD.

FMAR was assessed from actigraphy at baseline in 1,077 participants who had annual follow-up clinical assessments for up to 15 years. Survival analysis combined with deep learning (DeepSurv) was used to examine how baseline FMAR at different timescales from 3 minutes up to 6 hours contributed differently to the risk for incident clinical AD.

Clinical AD occurred in 270 participants during the follow-up. DeepSurv identified three potential regions of timescales in which FMAR alterations were significantly linked to the risk for clinical AD: <10, 20-40, and 100-200 minutes. Confirmed by the Cox and random survival forest models, the effect of FMAR alterations in the timescale of <10 minutes was the strongest, after adjusting for covariates.

Subtle changes in motor activity fluctuations predicted the clinical onset of AD, with the strongest association observed in activity fluctuations at timescales <10 minutes. These findings suggest that short actigraphy recordings may be used to assess the risk of AD.